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Monthly Archive for January, 2011

The Contango Price Back

Understanding the VIX Contango can give some insights into the potential of future uncertainty sentiment. This post reviews a VIX contango hedge.

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The VIX has given us one of its characteristic break-outs last Friday. It will be interesting to see how volatility therefore gets priced back to the underlying S&P500 benchmark over the next few days.

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Bullish Normality

Can past distribution of returns on benchmark indices give us an indication of potential strong market performance? This article is an extension of the previous fundamentals based bullish article to highlight some of the potential upside available over the coming few years.

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JPMorgan Chase’s recent 4Q10 earnings release have supported a previous review of a write-back cycle picking up some momentum (Writing Back the Down Up). The question now is: where to from here?

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The Chinese Macro environment should prove quite exciting over the course of 2011. Unfortunately, part of this excitement could be due to uncontrolled inflationary pressures and the resultant extreme policy shifts required in order to confront them.

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A brief pause over the usual course of reporting to review the Queensland floods covering an area roughly the size of Germany. Expect some jumping along in the markets with certain commodities related equities getting shaken (but not stirred) a little over the course of 2011.

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Graph of the month or, probably more accurately, of the the year gone by: an Artemis Capital render of the 2010 VIX curve and S&P500 returns.

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