The US economy is progressing on the data front with core economic metrics still pushing to the upside and, in confirmation of past trends (see Plucking article), appears to be doing so at a broad based level.
GDP Revision, check – GO
Real GDP Above 2007 peak, check – GO
Total NFP figures firming, check – GO
DC, Do We Have Lift-Off?
Again, the performance is good so far but the US front line remains with its unemployed. This is both a worry from a confidence perspective but also a boon from a core-inflation outlook. Labour market spare capacity is, fortunately, not pressuring core wage metrics just yet.
The year is still beginning but, on the bright side, Spring is coming. The odds favour warmer days ahead.